poeflips prices flips, identification gambles and boss runs from the live market — expected value, the odds a single attempt loses, and the risk a whole bankroll goes to zero. Where it has not measured something, it says so instead of guessing.
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Each one is priced from the live market and refreshed continuously by a crawler that stays inside the trade API's published rate limits.
Every known recipe priced on both sides at once — what the input costs, what the result sells for, how deep each market is, and how many you could actually move before undercutting yourself.
Identification lotteries and card turn-ins as a full outcome distribution: every result with its probability and price, the expected value across them, the chance one attempt loses, and the chance the entire position goes to zero.
Entry fragments minus guaranteed drops, priced live — several pinnacle bosses pay for themselves before a single unique drops. For the rest, how many kills each possible drop would cover.
Most of the work in this thing is knowing when to stay quiet.
Nobody publishes Path of Exile drop rates. So poeflips does not multiply a price by a probability it does not have — it tells you what the drop would have to do to be worth it, and lets your own kills supply the rest.
When a figure rests on part of a pool rather than all of it, it renders as a bound and says how much of the pool it covers. An unpriced outcome is unknown, never zero.
Where a value is inferred rather than observed, every number derived from it renders as a range — and never as the single figure in the middle, which would be indistinguishable from something real.
Market data is read from this server's own address, with no Path of Exile session for any account, paced to stay inside the published limits at all times.